Mexico Is Reopening After El Mencho's Death, but 25 Soldiers Are Dead and the Cartel Isn't Gone

Day Three: The Calm After the Chaos

Three days after Mexican security forces killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, the most wanted man in the Western Hemisphere, Mexico is slowly returning to something that looks like normal. President Claudia Sheinbaum announced at a press conference on Tuesday that the seven remaining road blockades from Sunday's cartel retaliation had been cleared. Flights have resumed at Guadalajara Airport. Operations are "gradually returning" at Puerto Vallarta Airport.

Air Canada, WestJet, Air Transat, and Porter Airlines all confirmed they would restore service to Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara starting February 24 and 25. American airlines including Southwest, Alaska, United, and Delta are following similar timelines. The U.S. State Department's shelter-in-place advisory has been relaxed, though a broader travel advisory for Jalisco state remains in effect.

But the numbers behind this fragile recovery tell a darker story. At least 74 people are confirmed dead, including 25 National Guard soldiers killed in six separate attacks during the 48 hours following El Mencho's death. The military operation and its aftermath represent the deadliest confrontation between Mexican security forces and organized crime in years.

What Happened to the Soldiers

The death of 25 National Guard members is the detail that separates this event from a typical cartel operation. These weren't soldiers killed in the initial raid on El Mencho. They died in coordinated retaliatory attacks across Jalisco and neighboring states in the hours and days that followed.

The CJNG didn't just set up roadblocks. They targeted military checkpoints, convoy routes, and National Guard positions in what amounts to a military campaign against the Mexican state. Six separate attacks on government forces in a 48-hour window shows operational planning, not spontaneous rage. The cartel had a contingency plan for El Mencho's death, and that plan included attacking the people who killed him.

For context, 10,000 troops have been deployed across 20 of Mexico's 32 states to maintain order. Schools were closed across several states. In Guadalajara, Mexico's second-largest city and a CJNG stronghold, residents effectively imposed a self-curfew on Sunday and Monday nights. The images of empty streets in a metropolitan area of 5 million people, enforced not by the government but by fear of cartel violence, are profoundly unsettling.

The Tourism Damage

The operational recovery at airports masks deeper economic damage that will take months to quantify. Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara are among Mexico's most important tourism destinations. Videos of smoke billowing over Puerto Vallarta, tourists sheltering in hotels, and panicked crowds at the Guadalajara airport circulated globally on social media.

The timing couldn't be worse. Spring break season begins in earnest next week, and Puerto Vallarta is one of the top destinations for American and Canadian tourists. Hotels report a wave of cancellations. Travel agents say new bookings for March and April have dropped significantly. The images from this weekend will be the first thing that comes up when anyone searches for "Puerto Vallarta travel" for the foreseeable future.

The economic impact extends beyond tourism. Jalisco is Mexico's third-largest state economy, with significant manufacturing, agriculture (it produces most of the world's tequila), and technology sectors. The 252 road blockades on Sunday disrupted supply chains across the state and beyond. Factories that depend on just-in-time delivery had to halt production. Agricultural products couldn't reach markets.

The CJNG Succession Question

The fundamental issue going forward isn't whether airports reopen or roads get cleared. It's what happens inside the Jalisco New Generation Cartel now that its founder and leader is dead.

El Mencho built the CJNG from a regional gang into a transnational organization operating in at least 35 countries with estimated annual revenues in the tens of billions of dollars. The cartel controls approximately one-third of Mexico's drug trafficking market and is the primary supplier of fentanyl to the United States.

The immediate retaliation demonstrated that the CJNG has the organizational capacity to execute coordinated operations across most of Mexico within hours. That's not an organization in disarray. But maintaining that capacity without El Mencho's personal authority is a different challenge.

History offers two models. When El Chapo was captured and extradited, the Sinaloa cartel fragmented into competing factions that fought each other for years. When the Zetas lost their leadership, the organization splintered and eventually dissolved, though its members seeded smaller groups that still operate.

Analysts are divided on which model the CJNG will follow. The cartel has a more militarized structure and more diverse revenue streams than its predecessors, which could allow it to survive a leadership transition. But El Mencho's family, which is deeply embedded in operations, has been systematically targeted by law enforcement. His wife, daughter, and several extended family members have been arrested or indicted. The most likely internal successor is unknown; the CJNG has been deliberately opaque about its leadership hierarchy below El Mencho.

The World Cup Clock

The elephant in every room is the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which Mexico co-hosts starting in June. Guadalajara is scheduled to host four matches, including one featuring Mexico's national team. Authorities expect approximately 3 million visitors during the tournament.

Guadalajara is the capital of Jalisco and the CJNG's home turf. The city was essentially shut down for two days this weekend by cartel violence. The juxtaposition of World Cup preparations and cartel-imposed curfews raises questions that reassurances from Mexican officials can't easily answer.

FIFA has not issued a public statement about the security situation. That silence speaks volumes. FIFA has invested billions in the tri-nation World Cup format and cannot easily relocate matches from Guadalajara with barely four months until kickoff. But pretending that a city where a drug cartel can shut down an entire metropolitan area in hours is safe for millions of international visitors requires a level of optimism that borders on negligence.

The most likely outcome is enhanced security measures: massive troop deployments, international intelligence cooperation, and restricted zones around stadiums. Whether that's enough depends entirely on what happens with the CJNG in the coming months.

The U.S. Factor

The White House confirmed that the United States provided intelligence for the operation that killed El Mencho. That cooperation represents the closest U.S.-Mexico security coordination in recent memory. But the aftermath creates new complications.

The CJNG is the primary source of fentanyl entering the United States, a drug that killed over 70,000 Americans last year. If the cartel fragments, the immediate effect could be more violence in border regions and disrupted trafficking routes that paradoxically increase drug prices and incentivize competition among smaller organizations.

The U.S. Embassy issued a security alert for all of Mexico on February 23 and activated its 24/7 crisis hotline, fielding hundreds of calls from American citizens. The State Department's response was appropriate but also revealed the limits of American influence: the U.S. can provide intelligence to help Mexico take down a cartel leader, but it can't control what happens afterward.

What the Coming Weeks Will Tell Us

The immediate crisis is receding. Roads are open. Flights are running. Schools will reopen. The Mexican government will declare the operation a success and point to the restored calm as evidence that the state prevailed.

But the deeper story will unfold over weeks and months. Will the CJNG hold together under new leadership or fracture into warring factions? Will rival cartels, particularly the Sinaloa cartel, see this as an opportunity to seize CJNG territory? Will the violence in Jalisco subside or intensify as succession battles play out?

The pattern from previous cartel leadership decapitations suggests the worst may not be over. The immediate retaliation, the roadblocks and attacks on soldiers, was the cartel demonstrating that it still exists. The real violence often comes later, when internal factions fight each other for control, when rival organizations test boundaries, and when the power vacuum creates opportunities for local violence that the old leadership would have suppressed.

Mexico is holding its breath, and so is everyone who has a flight booked to Puerto Vallarta or a ticket to the World Cup. The calm of day three is welcome. Whether it holds is the question that matters.