Day Six: Senate Kills War Powers Vote, Iran Gets a New Supreme Leader, and the Death Toll Crosses 1,000

The Senate Had Its Chance and Punted

The U.S. Senate voted 47 to 53 on Tuesday to reject a Democrat-led war powers resolution that would have forced President Trump to withdraw military forces from Iran within 30 days. The resolution, introduced by Senators Tim Kaine, Chuck Schumer, and Adam Schiff, needed 60 votes to advance. It fell 13 short.

Only one Republican, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, crossed the aisle to vote yes. On the other side, Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania voted against the measure, continuing his break with the party on Middle East policy. The vote came after a classified three-hour briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during which Democratic lawmakers said they were alarmed by the scope of the military campaign and the lack of a clear exit strategy.

Here's the thing: even if the resolution had passed both chambers, Trump would have vetoed it, and a two-thirds override was never remotely in play. The vote was always more about political positioning than actual restraint. But it still matters. It puts every senator on the record for or against a war that is six days old, with American casualties mounting, heading into a midterm election year. A companion resolution is expected to come to the House floor on Thursday.

Iran Has a New Supreme Leader (Reportedly)

While Washington was voting, Tehran was making a succession decision. According to multiple reports, including from Iran International and Western intelligence sources, Iran's Assembly of Experts has elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.

The selection has not been officially confirmed by Iranian state media, and Iran's Consulate General in Mumbai issued a denial. But Israeli intelligence sources and several Western outlets report the decision as effectively made. Mojtaba has never held a formal public office, but he has been the shadow manager of the Office of the Supreme Leader for years, overseeing its sprawling bureaucratic and financial network. He is considered a hardliner, close to the IRGC's senior commanders.

If confirmed, the selection of a Khamenei family member as successor would represent a near-dynastic transfer of power, something critics of the regime have warned about for over a decade. It would also mean the war effort is likely to continue with full intensity. Mojtaba is not the type of leader who signals willingness to negotiate under fire; he's the type who doubles down. Whether he can actually consolidate power while U.S. and Israeli bombs are still falling is another question entirely.

Iran's Offensive Is Running Out of Steam

The numbers tell a stark story. According to U.S. military assessments, the volume of Iranian missile launches has dropped by 86% and drone strikes by 73% compared to the first day of the war. That's not because Iran chose restraint. It's because the U.S.-Israeli campaign has systematically degraded Iran's ability to fight back.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced that Iran's air force and navy have been "knocked out" as functional military assets. A U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship in international waters off the coast of Sri Lanka, with Sri Lanka's navy recovering several bodies from the wreckage. The Israeli military said it launched its tenth wave of strikes against Tehran, targeting what it described as "command and control centers and weapons production facilities."

The IRGC acknowledged the losses but announced that "ground forces entered battlefield operations" with 230 drones deployed. That's a telling shift. When a military pivots from air, naval, and missile power to emphasizing ground forces and small drones, it usually means the higher-end capabilities are gone or severely depleted. Iran's ability to threaten the region is diminishing, but it hasn't hit zero, and the IRGC's asymmetric playbook has plenty of pages left.

The Death Toll Crosses a Grim Threshold

The confirmed death toll in Iran has crossed 1,045, according to figures compiled by Al Jazeera's live tracker using Iranian Red Crescent data. Casualties in Israel stand at 11. Six American soldiers have been killed, and nine people have died in Gulf states from Iranian retaliatory strikes.

The U.S. confirmed the identities of the four American soldiers killed when an Iranian drone struck a makeshift operations center at the Shuaiba port in Kuwait, bringing the total U.S. fatalities to six. The Pentagon released their names but limited details about the incident, citing operational security. Three U.S. embassies have been closed in the region, with the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, the CIA station in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. Consulate in Dubai, and a major air base in Qatar all having been struck by Iranian munitions.

The disparity in casualties is enormous and growing. Over 1,000 dead in Iran versus 26 outside it. That asymmetry fuels the international criticism that this is less a war and more a bombardment campaign with retaliatory fire around the edges. It also makes the political framing inside Iran easier: this is an attack on the nation, not a symmetrical conflict, and every death becomes a reason to resist.

Hormuz Stays Shut, Oil Markets Stay Nervous

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and every day it stays that way, the global energy picture gets uglier. Roughly 12 to 14 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate normally transit this chokepoint. Right now, that flow is near zero.

Wood Mackenzie, the energy consultancy, warned that oil could hit $150 per barrel if the strait remains shut for an extended period. Goldman Sachs raised its second-quarter Brent crude forecast to $76 per barrel in a base case, with scenarios going much higher. Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) freight rates have hit an all-time high of $423,736 per day because insurers have pulled war risk coverage for vessels transiting the Gulf.

A container ship reported being hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, causing an engine room fire, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations. That's exactly the kind of incident that keeps every shipping company parked outside the Gulf. Trump has pledged that U.S. naval escorts will protect tanker traffic "if necessary," but so far, no escort convoys have actually been formed. The gap between the promise and the reality is where oil traders are pricing their risk.

Global Protests and the World Takes Sides

Anti-war protests have erupted across the United States, Europe, and the Middle East. In Los Angeles, organizations including the A.N.S.W.E.R. Coalition, CodePink, and Democratic Socialists of America rallied with actress Jane Fonda, denouncing the strikes as illegal. In Athens, over 1,300 demonstrators marched with banners reading "Hands Off Iran." Protests across Pakistan, particularly among Shia communities, drew large crowds chanting slogans against the United States and Israel.

The international diplomatic response remains divided. China and Russia have condemned the strikes in the strongest terms, with Moscow calling them "an unprovoked act of armed aggression." The UN Secretary-General urged all parties to return to the negotiating table. On the other side, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte voiced support, and varying degrees of backing came from the UK, Canada, Australia, Ukraine, and Albania.

A ballistic missile fired from Iran that entered Turkish airspace was destroyed by NATO air and missile defense systems in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey confirmed the interception through its Defense Ministry. That incident, which could have dragged a NATO ally directly into the conflict, underscores how thin the line is between a contained regional war and something much bigger.

What to Watch Next

Three things will shape the coming days.

First, the House vote on Thursday. A companion war powers resolution is expected to come to the floor, and while it faces similar odds, the debate will be more public and potentially more contentious. Every House member is up for reelection in November, and this vote will be used in campaign ads.

Second, Mojtaba Khamenei's consolidation. If his appointment is confirmed and he can establish authority over the IRGC and the Interim Leadership Council, Iran's war posture becomes more predictable. If there's a power struggle, things get more chaotic and potentially more dangerous, since factions might escalate to prove their legitimacy.

Third, the Strait of Hormuz. Every additional day of closure pushes oil toward triple digits, strains global supply chains, and increases pressure on Trump to either open the waterway by force or negotiate. The economic fallout from Hormuz may ultimately do more to shape the war's timeline than any military operation.